NPB Rates & Ranks Report #7
Week Ending 7/14/2025
Document : NPB Rates & Ranks Report #7
Level : Professional - International
Source : https://www.fangraphs.com/
Offensive Date Data pulled : Monday, July 14, 2025 7:38 AM ET
Pitchers Date Data pulled: Monday, July 14, 2025 7:38 AM ET
Overview : From an offensive perspective, I rated & ranked 191 NPB position players using stats for the follow dates 2025 Season Start - 7/14/2025 with a 60 PA Minimum. Players were assessed using a neutralized Run Value system to measure their overall offensive production, broken down into two core components:
“The Run Tool”— Captures the value generated from non-hit plate appearances (walks, stolen bases, etc.)
“The Hit Tool”— Measures a player’s offensive impact via hitting.
“Overall” — A sum of the Run Tool and the Hit Tool, representing overall offensive contribution.
Each player is rated & ranked in these three categories: Run Tool, Hit Tool , and Overall
Link to Full Spreadsheet
When I look at players I look at them in terms of production amongst their league and MLB standards. Here is where most player fall in terms of Run Value / PA or Overall Rate using a NPB scale.
That said, I like to compare these players to a MLB standard scale for production to see if they could make the transition. If I were looking to acquire a player from another league with lower competition, then I need this player to be producing at an above average production or better.
I used the MLB Overall Rate scale to color code the spreadsheet to easily identify players measure up against MLB Standards when viewing by Age. To view the spreadsheet by Age click the little calculator looking thing, then select ‘Group by Age’.
With that in mind, let’s use that structure to breakdown our report to help identify top talent in the NPB by Age for Great & Elite Production…
Age 23
Yuki Okabayashi Dragons (NPB) - Above Average Production
Age 24
Shun Mizutani Fighters (NPB) Great Production
Age 26
Teruaki Sato Tigers (NPB) - Elite Production … L/R | 3B/OF| 6’1” 210 … 5th year in the NPB, is posting elite production with an Overall Rate of 0.180, ranking #2. An Overall Rate of 0.180 is 56.5% better than the average NPB player 0.115. A hit base approach, his rate is coming from his Hit Tool ranked #2 and his Run Tool ranked #42. He has an XBH rate of 15.03% and a HR rate of 7.36% in 359 PA. He is striking out 26.74% of the time and average BB rate 10.31%… .986 Fielding % at 3B
Seiya Hosokawa Dragons (NPB) - Great Production
Age 29
Kazuma Okamoto Giants (NPB)- Elite Production … R/R | OF | 6’1” 220… 8th year in the NPB, is posting elite production with an Overall Rate of 0.185, ranking #1 An Overall Rate of 0.185 is 60.8% better than the average NPB player 0.115. A hit heavy approach, his rate is coming from his Hit Tool ranked #1 and his Run Tool ranked #28. He has an XBH rate of 14.53% and a HR rate of 6.84% in 134 PA. He is striking out 11.94% of the time and average BB rate 10.45%.
No new updates on return…
Franmil Reyes Fighters (NPB) | Great Production
Pitching
There is limited data on pitchers in NPB, so I had to use implied probabilities numbers for some XBH values to understand run value, which is why I use the *. From the pitching perspective, I rated & ranked 146 NPB pitchers for 2025 Season Start - 7/14/2025 with a minimum requirement of 20 IP. The pitchers are rated the same way in terms of run value but instead of Plate appearance or At Bat, I use Batter Faced.
Daichi IshiiTigers (NPB) Age 27
Taichi IshiyamaSwallows (NPB) Age 36
Shota NakazakiCarp (NPB) Age 32
Hiromu IseBayStars (NPB) Age 27
Sotaro ShimauchiCarp (NPB) Age 28
Jon DuplantierTigers (NPB) Age 30
Foster GriffinGiants (NPB) Age 29
Masashi ItohTigers (NPB) Age 29
Naoto NishiguchiGolden Eagles (NPB) Age 28
Yuya YanagiDragons (NPB) Age 31
Rowan WickBayStars (NPB) Age 32
Shunsuke NakamoriMarines (NPB) Age 23
Takato IharaTigers (NPB) Age 24
SO% Leaders
Naoto NishiguchiGolden Eagles (NPB) Age 28 | SO Rate 40.38%
Trey WingenterLions (NPB) Age 31| SO Rate 40.00%
Shinya MatsuyamaDragons (NPB) Age 25 | SO Rate 36.07%
Kazuki SugiyamaHawks (NPB) Age 27 | SO Rate 35.63%
Kouya FujiiHawks (NPB) Age 28 | SO Rate 35.48%
Yuki MatsumotoHawks (NPB) Age 29 | SO Rate 35.05%
Jon DuplantierTigers (NPB) Age 30 | SO Rate 33.23%
Shunsuke NakamoriMarines (NPB) Age 23 | SO Rate 32.43%
Taisei YanagawaFighters (NPB) Age 21 | SO Rate 31.25%
Shuta TakanoMarines (NPB) Age 26 | SO Rate 30.91%
That’s all for this week, come back in 2 weeks for more NPB blogs. I do a bi-weekly professional baseball report and alternate between MiLB & International Leagues.
This week I finished reading Built To Win by John Schuerholz. I was trying to find books that could give me insight on the GM perspective. It was a super easy read. I could not put this book down. Despite touching on a ton of different areas, the book did a really good job at making you feel like you were there, and easy to follow along. Here were some of my favorite tidbits :
Create a vision
Establish organizational goals.
Develop a roadmap, or game plan, if you prefer, for success.
Inspire the staff.
Provide the leadership.
Story about the Lion and Gazelle…Both of them realize that when the sun rises, they must be running for their lives.
Tom Glavine story about free agency. John did a great job tapping into the human side of things.
Barry Bonds was almost a Brave if it were not for Jim Leyland.
I really did enjoy the bits of self deprecating humor throughout the entire thing. This book checked most everything I was looking for at the intersection of finance/baseball/insurance/analytics/scouting. I’m not paid to refer books, here is an Amazon link to the book .
The next book I picked up to understand Orioles history, and the manager role is The Last Manager. The story of Earl Weaver.
Don’t forget to subscribe and follow me on Twitter | LinkedIn | Medium | IG | TikTok. If you loved it or hated it, let me know as well, but remember 3 ups & 3 downs. Give me 3 things you liked followed by 3 things you hated.
-Chris Boz
Failure to plan is planning to fail. Remain resolved in your pursuits.
Other Blogs...
MLB Analysis:
Phillies –Predicted how the Phillies might manage veteran workloads—such as placing Bryce Harper on the IL—and highlighted Otto Kemp as a likely call-up. Published May 28, 2025
Orioles – Published May 16, 2025, one day before they parted ways with Brandon Hyde: In it, I called for accountability and posed the question: "Is a shakeup at the helm necessary? Without a course correction soon, 2025 risks slipping away before it ever takes shape."
“Searching for the Oriole Way” - I examine the Orioles’ current trajectory through both a numbers-based lens and an instinctual baseball perspective. Published Jun 26, 2025
Pro Scouting Reports:
Norfolk Tides (Kyle Stowers) Published on Jul 29, 2024 ‘Stowers…Didn’t chase, and let it fly on a pitch in his zone. Stowers took advantage of the pitching today, as I would expect from a professional hitter facing 80–92ish. He definitely can hit this caliber pitching especially with his approach consistently. I think he needs an opportunity with a big club to see if he can translate his first at bat approach to next level caliber pitching.’ Stowers was traded on Jul 30, 2024 — The Marlins dealt left-hander Trevor Rogers to the Orioles for Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby. For the 2025 season, as of 7/14/25 in 319 PA Stowers is slashing .293/.368/.543 with an OPS of .911.
Norfolk Tides (Coby Mayo) Published on Jul 28, 2024 ‘Coby Mayo is active at the plate. Not sure if that’s that best way to describe it, but there’s a lot of moving pieces before he gets the bat around. If Kyle Stowers is the most polished swing, Mayo might be the most raw swing on the Tide. It really showed itself when he was late to a pitch when the pitcher went slide step/fastball. He flew out to right on a fastball middleish/away. If he gets exposed here down by a AAA guy throwing 93.9 mph (respectfully), it’s not going to be better in MLB. Mayo is not a MLB ready first baseman. It’s going to take some time, because he had two errors over there. The second error cost two runs and the tying run to score. I don’t know what he looks like at third.’ While Mayo’s MLB playing time has been inconsistent, he’s struggled to adjust to MLB pitching and his power tool has not translated to the next level yet. Small sample size .203/.259/.304 in 2025 with 85 PA and improvement from 2024 with 46 PA .098/.196/.098. He has taken to 1B well.
Jackson Holliday Published on Jul 29, 2024 ‘Not too much changed from last night. Holliday has a big swing and there is a lot of swing & miss. I wish the contact to damage ratio was a little higher, but he’s young and I hope he grows into his swing. Defensively, he was playing second base. In the field he botched a double play ball. He ended up getting an out at second, but resorted to a quick glove flip/tap after he initially dropped it. (it was kinda cool) The talent is clearly there, but you have to make these routine plays. I am going to stick with my assessment last night. Stick to AAA and call it a year. I really do not think he can help the big club this year’ In 2024 slash line .189/.255/.311, and league average defender.’ In 2024 slash line .189/.255/.311, and league average defender.
Amateur Scouting Reports :
Scouting Report —Amateur, Division 1 Washington vs. Rutgers (3/28/25) Published Mar 29, 2025 … “Trevor Cohen #4 (1942/994/1358) … Position OF Ht./Wt. 6–1 / 195 B/T L/L Class JR … Game Notes : LHH — simple swing. Hands held behind his head, a slight bat wrap on takes. I like where his hands sit for him. They are flat, but corbin carrol esk.” … Selected by the San Francisco Giants 85th Overall in the 2025 MLB Draft.
D1 Scouting Report Amateur, URI vs. GMU (4/25/25) - Published on Apr 27, 2025… ‘James Quinn-Irons GMU #10…Game Impressions : Good frame 6’3-6-4” runs well in AB #2 triple. played CF - I thought he tracked the ball well in CF top 8th first out. At the plate, I thought he was in and out of his legs a bit…Nice swing, he gets the ball out in front and lifts the ball. There is definitely room for growth. His front side gets firm, but it never gets hard. Ya gotta hit against a stiff front leg if you want to drive a baseball with authority. You can slap a ball and if you are big or strong enough muscle some baseballs with a bent front leg, but you are not buggy whipping balls with a bent front leg. Similar situation not as extreme as Peyton Bonds of Rutgers. You gotta know that there is a next level of untapped power potential with a minor mechanical adjustment. for 6’4”-6’5” the kid moves well. Shoring up the front side will also help with the sway in his hips…Reminds me a little of Randell Grichuk’…. Selected by the Tampa Bay Rays with the 147th overall pick of the 2025 First-Year Player Draft.
Free Agent Valuation Tool :
My first test of the tool was Harrison Bader. My valuation tool estimated between $6.3–8.5 million…The final deal was $6.25 mil + $2 mil in possible incentives.
Kiké Hernández… My estimate using my valuation tool: $5.4–$7.6 million. Officially announced the terms: $6.5 million for 2025
Free Agent Evaluations:
Christian Walker Published on Dec 6, 2024 ‘To me, the Astros make a perfect home for Walker. The Astros are a very data driven organization and would see the value of a guy like Christian Walker. The Astros have an aging roster, so the age probably scares the Astros away from offering him a 3 year deal, but I 100% think they would be in on a 2 year deal. Maybe they do a 2 year deal with a 3rd year team option with a buyout. But they have a 1B spot open… my recommendation 3 years / $47.6-56Mil’ … Signed with Astros on Dec 23, 2024 for 3 years / $60 million
Ha-Seong Kim Published on Dec 17, 2024 ‘Guardians / Rays: Small-market teams love positional versatility…Ha-Seong Kim brings health concerns (check the rehab), but his game is built to produce and a lot of the underlying numbers are trending is a good direction. I feel he’s finally adjusting and making consistent strides in the right direction to learning when to be more aggressive at the plate. I see him as a guy that’s just scratching the surface in terms of what he’s capable of. He’s versatile, disciplined, and sneaky valuable on offense — even if he isn’t a slugger right now. For teams focused on speed, defense, and OBP, Kim’s a fit…1-5year/(11.5M-14.8M AAV).’…Signed with Rays on Feb 3, 2025 for 2 years/ 14.5 AAV
Tyler O’Neill – Published on Nov 17, 2024 ‘I could see him with the Orioles, I know the Orioles Super Computer wants him. The Orioles use vsL/vsR splits like it’s a religion, and if there is a player that can hit a ball out of any park it’s O’Neill (48%) of his home runs were no doubters. I’m sure Baltimore would love to have him as a DH vs lefties. I almost wrote this blog from the perspective of the Orioles Super Computer… Recommendation : the deal is 50% ($7.8 mil) guaranteed, which is what you are expecting him to play, then an additional ($1.56 Mil) for each additional 10% GP. $7.8 Guaranteed, $7.8 in games played Incentives or 2 years/$18.72 Mil.’…Signed with Orioles on Dec 7, 2024 for 3 years/$49.5Mil. As of 7/6/25 O’Neill’s played in less than 30% of Orioles games and if he plays in every game after his return from the IL on 7/5/24 has a max opportunity to play in 61.73% games.
Jurickson Profar Published on Nov 23, 2024 ‘Given Profar’s profile at 32, I’d recommend a 1-year, $6.75 million deal, with the possibility of a 2-year, $14 million deal for a team that views him as a complementary piece in an already established lineup. While his on-base skills are appealing, I’m not buying into the slugging breakout, especially given the stark home/away splits. He’s best suited as a high-OBP role player rather than a middle-of-the-order bat. I will probably get a lot of pushback here, if another team wants to pay more I would let that happen. This is just how I see it. I understand he’ll probably get a bigger deal, which I’m fine with.’ On Jan 23, 2025 Profar signed with the Braves three-years, $42 million. On Mar 31, 2025 Profar received an 80-game suspension after testing positive for Chorionic Gonadotropin (hCG), a performance-enhancing substance.
Max Kepler Published on Dec 20, 2024 ‘Considering Kepler’s declining durability, speed, and offensive production, you must expect he will only play around 70% of the games. Based on these factors, my contract recommendation would have been $1 million. Maybe he can play himself into another contract.’… Signed with the Phillies on Dec 20, 2024 for $10Mil. As of 7/14/25 in 313 PA Kepler is slashing .210/.307/.371
MiLB :
Scouting Report MiLB High-A affiliate - Ironbirds (Orioles) German / Freeberger / Méndez – Scouting report from a game I attended, focus on pitching evaluations. Published on May 10, 2025
KBO/NPB :
KBO Rates & Ranks Report #6 Bi-Weekly is a tracking/monitoring report I publish bi-weekly. I rate and rank production for KBO. NPB Rates & Ranks Report #6 Bi-Weekly is a tracking/monitoring report I publish bi-weekly. I rate and rank production for NPB. Published on July 1, 2025
Amateur :