Exactly one-third of the way through the Phillies season, and here are my thoughts...

May 28, 2025

Tonight marked game 54 for the Phillies, exactly one-third of the way through the season—a natural checkpoint. The first 54 games reveal a team’s identity. The next 54 determine whether internal fixes are enough before the trade deadline, setting the stage for either a playoff push or a focus on development. At this point, with a .648 W% the Phillies are on pace to win 105 games, a truly elite projection.

The current WC3 threshold stands at 91 Wins. Could the WC3 threshold fall a few games before now and the end of the season? Sure, and for the Phillies to win 90 games they need to play .509 ball the remainder of the season. I think the Phillies are more than capable of doing.

That said, watching this team tonight in person left me with a lingering sense of a "last hurrah." This squad feels like it’s in its final dance. Their veteran savvy prevents rookie mistakes, and their starting rotation is a powerhouse, ensuring a high floor. But the ceiling seems to be lowering, and you can’t help but wonder if this team has one last trick up its sleeve.

What I Saw: Coming into this game, I was focused on whether Ranger Suárez was varying his hand wipes before throwing off-speed pitches. He was, and it showed—he pitched brilliantly.

Then there was Bryce Harper getting hit by Spencer Strider’s 95.3 mph four-seam fastball on his surgically repaired elbow. I’m not saying it was intentional, but for a RHP to hit a LHH with a pitch that far inside, it was clearly intended to be inside, how far inside? We will never know, but the Phillies need to protect Harper better…This team’s greatest strength—its unflappable veteran demeanor—is also a concern. Most baseball minds would call that composure a gift, but when your star player leaves the game after being plunked and no response follows, it’s hard not to want a spark of fire from this group. The best retaliation is winning, but a little fight wouldn’t hurt.

Baserunning: Max Kepler missed a chance to score when a ball skipped away. A sharp baserunning team capitalizes there. It’s possible the game sped up on him—his late tag-up on a fly ball suggests his focus might have been on staying safe at third rather than seizing the moment.

Outlook: I will be watching intently on Dombrowski’s moves this trade deadline. I think he will be paying close attention to the health of an aging squad. If nothing else, that injury to Harper showed us this is a very thin/pitchable lineup without him. An injury to Schwarber or Harper could put this team in. If I’m in the FO, I am doing two things. I am looking at players internally that can fill needs/possibly provide a youthful/meaningful spark, while making reports for position players that can ensure more than just depth in the final stretch, guys in contract years that won’t cost too much financially.

If the health stays the Phillies will be fine, they could probably sleep walk to 90 wins and a playoff birth. Their starting pitching will mask the flaws of an aging core, but they’ll likely need a bullpen arm to replace Alvarado. This is a well-rounded team with the tools to compete, but they’ll need to dig deep to go out with a bang.

If you liked this blog, I write a weekly tracking reports on college, international leagues and MiLB. I just released a minor league player rankings blog on 5/26/25. The Phillies do have some youthful talent available. If you are into minor league baseball, here is a list of Phillies Org Rank by production. To me the most obvious AAA youthful recommendations are Otto Kemp (Producing at an Elite Level. His overall Rank in MiLB is #37. He has a hit heavy approach, Hit Tool ranks #40 and Run Tool ranks #370) and/or Justin Crawford (Producing at a Great Level. His overall Rank in MiLB is #385. He has a hit heavy approach, Hit Tool ranks #333 and Run Tool Ranks #756).

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-Chris Boz

Failure to plan is planning to fail. Remain resolved in your pursuits.

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