NPB Rates & Ranks Report #6 - Week Ending 6/30/2025

Document : NPB Rates & Ranks Report #6

Level : Professional - International

Source : https://www.fangraphs.com/

Offensive Date Data pulled : Monday, June 30, 2025 2:02 PM ET

Pitchers Date Data pulled: Monday, June 30, 2025 2:02 PM ET

Overview : From an offensive perspective, I rated & ranked 181 NPB position players using stats for the follow dates 2025 Season Start - 6/30/2025 with a 60 PA Minimum. Players were assessed using a neutralized Run Value system to measure their overall offensive production, broken down into two core components:

• “The Run Tool”— Captures the value generated from non-hit plate appearances (walks, stolen bases, etc.)

• “The Hit Tool”— Measures a player’s offensive impact via hitting.

• “Overall” — A sum of the Run Tool and the Hit Tool, representing overall offensive contribution.

Each player is rated & ranked in these three categories: Run Tool, Hit Tool , and Overall

Link to Full Spreadsheet

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When I look at players I look at them in terms of production amongst their league and MLB standards. Here is where most player fall in terms of Run Value / PA or Overall Rate using a NPB scale.

That said, I like to compare these players to a MLB standard scale for production to see if they could make the transition. If I were looking to acquire a player from another league with lower competition, then I need this player to be producing at an above average production or better.

I used the MLB Overall Rate scale to color code the spreadsheet to easily identify players measure up against MLB Standards when viewing by Age. To view the spreadsheet by Age click the little calculator looking thing, then select ‘Group by Age’.

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With that in mind, let’s use that structure to breakdown our report to help identify top talent in the NPB by Age for Great & Elite Production…

Age 24

1. Shun Mizutani Fighters (NPB) Great Production

Age 26

1. Teruaki Sato Tigers (NPB) - Elite Production … L/R | 3B/OF| 6’1” 210 … 5th year in the NPB, is posting elite production with an Overall Rate of 0.176, ranking #2. An Overall Rate of 0.176 is 53.54% better than the average NPB player 0.115. A hit base approach, his rate is coming from his Hit Tool ranked #2 and his Run Tool ranked #37. He has an XBH rate of 15.00% and a HR rate of 7.14% in 307 PA. He is striking out 28.66% of the time and average BB rate 10.10%… .982 Fielding % at 3B

   

Age 28

1. Tatsuru Yanagimachi Hawks (NPB) | Great Production

2. Isami Nomura Hawks (NPB) | Great Production

Age 29

1. Kazuma Okamoto Giants (NPB)- Elite Production … R/R | OF | 6’1” 220… 8th year in the NPB, is posting elite production with an Overall Rate of 0.185, ranking #1 An Overall Rate of 0.185 is 61.28% better than the average NPB player 0.114. A hit heavy approach, his rate is coming from his Hit Tool ranked #1 and his Run Tool ranked #28. He has an XBH rate of 14.53% and a HR rate of 6.84% in 134 PA. He is striking out 11.94% of the time and average BB rate 10.45%.

Giants star Kazuma Okamoto expected to miss extended period with elbow injury after suffering a left elbow injury in a collision with the Hanshin Tigers’ Takumu Nakano during Tuesday night’s game at Tokyo Dome.

2. Franmil Reyes Fighters (NPB) | Great Production

Pitching : There is limited data on pitchers in NPB, so I had to use implied probabilities numbers for some XBH values to understand run value, which is why I use the *. From the pitching perspective, I rated & ranked 146 NPB pitchers for 2025 Season Start - 6/30/2025 with a minimum requirement of 20 IP. The pitchers are rated the same way in terms of run value but instead of Plate appearance or At Bat, I use Batter Faced.

1. Daichi Ishii Tigers (NPB) Age : 27

2. Raidel Martinez Giants (NPB) Age : 28

3. Shota Nakazaki Carp (NPB) Age : 32

4. Hiromu Ise BayStars (NPB) Age : 27

5. Sotaro Shimauchi Carp (NPB) Age : 28

6. Takato Ihara Tigers (NPB) Age : 24

7. Taichi Ishiyama Swallows (NPB) Age : 36

8. Kota Tatsu Fighters (NPB) Age : 21

9. Foster Griffin Giants (NPB) Age : 29

10. Masashi Itoh Tigers (NPB) Age : 29

SO% Leaders

1. Trey Wingenter Lions (NPB) Age : 31 | SO 38.78%

2. Naoto Nishiguchi Golden Eagles (NPB) Age : 28 | SO 37.78%

3. Shinya Matsuyama Dragons (NPB) Age : 25 | SO 36.07%

4. Kazuki Sugiyama Hawks (NPB) Age : 27 | SO 34.31%

5. Jon Duplantier Tigers (NPB) Age : 30 | SO 33.46%

6. Kouya Fujii Hawks (NPB) Age : 28 | SO 32.35%

7. Shuta Takano Marines (NPB) Age : 26 | SO 31.87%

8. Kota Nakagawa Giants (NPB) Age : 31 | SO 31.86%

9. Yuki Matsumoto Hawks (NPB) Age : 29 | SO 31.40%

10. Shunsuke Nakamori Marines (NPB) Age : 23 | SO 31.00%

That’s all for this week, come back in 2 weeks for more NPB blogs. I do a bi-weekly professional baseball report and alternate between MiLB & International Leagues.

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If you’ve made it this far, thank you for reading, I want to start including some of my favorite things I’m reading. Last time I did this KBO blog I was reading Coaching with Purpose by Keith Madison. I finished that, and it is a great book for coaches of all levels. A lot of wisdom shared about being on the front lines as a coach. Here were some takeaways :

• Words are like seeds. Be careful what you say. You might have to eat what you plant one day.

• (S.E.A.) set the Standard, clarify Expectations, hold Accountability.

• Decide when you will decide.

I picked up Built to Win by John Schuerholz. It’s an awesome book so far, and gives you a look inside the mind of a GM. For as great as he was as GM, I am appreciating the bits of self deprecating humor he sneaks in. There’s one section of the book that dives into trades, and his son reminded him ‘the one positive thing about trading away David Cone is that you won’t have to think too hard about the worst trade you ever made.’

-Chris Boz

Failure to plan is planning to fail. Remain resolved in your pursuits.

Other Blogs

MLB :

• Phillies – Predicted how the Phillies might manage veteran workloads—such as placing Bryce Harper on the IL—and highlighted Otto Kemp as a likely call-up. You can read it here. Published May 28, 2025

• Orioles – Published one day before they parted ways with Brandon Hyde: In it, I called for accountability and posed the question: "Is a shakeup at the helm necessary? Without a course correction soon, 2025 risks slipping away before it ever takes shape." Published May 16, 2025

• “Searching for the Oriole Way” - I examine the Orioles’ current trajectory through both a numbers-based lens and an instinctual baseball perspective. Published Jun 26, 2025

MiLB :

• MiLB Rates & Ranks Report #5 Bi-Weekly is a tracking/monitoring report I publish bi-weekly. I rate and rank production for MiLB. Publish on Jun 24, 2025

• Scouting Report MiLB High-A affiliate - Ironbirds (Orioles) German / Freeberger / Méndez – Scouting report from a game I attended, focus on pitching evaluations. Published on May 10, 2025

Free Agent Valuation Tool :

• One of my goals last offseason was to blend my experience in baseball, analytics, risk, and finance. I put that too the test by creating my own Valuation Tool. My first test of the tool was Harrison Bader. My valuation tool estimated between $6.3–8.5 million…The final deal was $6.25 mil + $2 mil in possible incentives, which was right in line with my valuation tool of $6.3–8.5 million.

• The second test of my valuation tool was Kiké Hernández… My estimate using my valuation tool: $5.4–$7.6 million. Officially announced the terms: $6.5 million for 2025 — right in the middle of my estimate.

Free Agent Evaluation Examples:

• Christian Walker Published on Dec 6, 2024 ‘To me, the Astros make a perfect home for Walker. The Astros are a very data driven organization and would see the value of a guy like Christian Walker. The Astros have an aging roster, so the age probably scares the Astros away from offering him a 3 year deal, but I 100% think they would be in on a 2 year deal. Maybe they do a 2 year deal with a 3rd year team option with a buyout. But they have a 1B spot open… my recommendation 3 years / $47.6-56Mil’ … Signed with Astros on Dec 23, 2024 for 3 years / $60 million

• Ha-Seong Kim Published on Dec 17, 2024 ‘Guardians / Rays: Small-market teams love positional versatility…Ha-Seong Kim brings health concerns (check the rehab), but his game is built to produce and a lot of the underlying numbers are trending is a good direction. I feel he’s finally adjusting and making consistent strides in the right direction to learning when to be more aggressive at the plate. I see him as a guy that’s just scratching the surface in terms of what he’s capable of. He’s versatile, disciplined, and sneaky valuable on offense — even if he isn’t a slugger right now. For teams focused on speed, defense, and OBP, Kim’s a fit…1-5year/(11.5M-14.8M AAV).’…Signed with Rays on Feb 3, 2025 for 2 years/ 14.5 AAV

• Tyler O’Neill – Published on Nov 17, 2024 ‘I could see him with the Orioles, I know the Orioles Super Computer wants him. The Orioles use vsL/vsR splits like it’s a religion, and if there is a player that can hit a ball out of any park it’s O’Neill (48%) of his home runs were no doubters. I’m sure Baltimore would love to have him as a DH vs lefties. I almost wrote this blog from the perspective of the Orioles Super Computer… Recommendation : the deal is 50% ($7.8 mil) guaranteed, which is what you are expecting him to play, then an additional ($1.56 Mil) for each additional 10% GP. $7.8 Guaranteed, $7.8 in games played Incentives or 2 years/$18.72 Mil.’…Signed with Orioles on Dec 7, 2024 for 3 years/$49.5Mil. He’s played in less than 30% of Orioles games so far.

• Max Kepler Published on Dec 20, 2024 ‘Considering Kepler’s declining durability, speed, and offensive production, you must expect he will only play around 70% of the games. Based on these factors, my contract recommendation would have been $1 million. Maybe he can play himself into another contract.’… Signed with the Phillies on Dec 20, 2024 for $10Mil