2026 Free Agent Evaluation: Michael Conforto
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Player: Michael Conforto
Birthplace: Seattle, WA
DOB: March 1, 1993 | Age at Start of Season: 33
B/T: L/R | H/W: 5-11/215lb
Service Time: 9.043 | Agent: Boras Corporation
Playing History & Coaches Tree
Availability
Injury Report
Speed
Defensively
Offensive Report Card
There are plenty of ways to evaluate offensive production. For this review, I’ll measure Michael Conforto against his positional peers using an A-B-C grading scale. Specifically, I’ll compare him to the average A Grade (1–10), B Grade (11–20), and C Grade (21–30) player at his position. In Michael Conforto’s case, his positional comp is Left Field/Designated Hitter (LF/DH). DH is the highest offensive bar by position.
I use the A-B-C Grading System because it’s easy for a broad audience to understand. While it could be expanded into subgrades A+, A, A- (Elite, Great, Good); B+, B, B- (Above Average, Average, Below Average); and C+, C, C- (Well Below Average, Not Good, Not Great) I keep it simple here for the sake of space and clarity. Sometimes I do use these terms interchangeably.
If some of the stats look unfamiliar, welcome to Bozzy Baseball Blogs. My background is in both baseball and insurance underwriting/finance, and I’ve developed my own version of a run value system to measure offensive production. It’s an end result, neutralized Run Value system, broken down into two core components:
RVR (Run Value Running) “The Run Tool”— Captures the value generated from non-hit plate appearances
RVH (Run Value Hitting) “The Hit Tool”— Measures a player’s offensive impact via hitting
RVO (Run Value Overall) “Overall” — The sum of Run Tool + Hit Tool, representing overall offensive contribution per plate appearance
I received some feedback from a reader and they had some questions about what the rates “Hit Tool” “Run Tool” “Overall Rate” mean and how it works…
So every offensive event has a run value associated with it, and I am breaking that down to a per Plate Appearance Basis. Some readers may ask why don’t you just look at RBI and Runs Scored to determine run value? Well, that’s a good point, but not every team is created equal. Some teams are juggernauts and other are well…not juggernauts, F Tier. If you play on better teams you will have more opportunities to score runs and drive more batters in so it would be “unfair” to judge players using traditional RBI and Runs Scored stats.
My goal was/is measure each players contributions individually and to create a practical statistic. One of the frustrations I have with traditional baseball stats is they do not have much practical use. Does do WAR, OPS, wOBA, etc. really have a use case? Not really. So I give every baseball event has a predetermined set run value. I then break those value down into the Hit Tool Rate (1B,2B,3B,HR) + Run Tool Rate (BB, SB, HBP) = Overall Rate by Plate appearance.
The first split on the Report Card is Career Totals. This is the widest stat lens, breaking down yearly totals. This provides a valuable look into possibly larger trends year-to-year.
Handedness - vs. RHP & LHP - Still a wide lens, but splitting the totals by LHP & RHP. This provides a valuable look into possible larger trends against left handed and right handed pitchers. One of my favorite splits to look at. This was a pivotal split last year when evaluating Tyler O’Neill. Helpful in 2026 Luis Arráez Eval
1st Half / 2nd Half - Still a widish lens, but splitting the totals by 1st & 2nd Half. This provides a valuable look into possible larger trends. Not always the most informative, but interesting to look at. 1st/2nd Half Splits were a factor in my Kyle Tucker’s 2026 Evaluation.
Pitch Mix:
Team Production (LF & DH)
Michael Conforto will be 33 years old for the 2026 season and it will be his 10th MLB season. This will likely be a 1-year contract. Over the past two seasons he is slightly below a B-Grade Offensive LF/DH. Over the past year he’s be a C-Grade Offensive LF/DH. There are a lot of concerns looking at the numbers, multi Grade drops in all Hit Tool categories: Career Hit Tool, Handedness Hit Tool, Pull Side Production, Pitch Mix and Fastball.
I’m not going to put a ton of stock into public defensive metrics, but his speed was the lowest of his career 18th percentile in the league.
These types of 2 Grade drop offs are typically associated with age/drop in bat speed. On a positive note his bat speed is still there, which make this a little odd.
When looking at the data to find a reason for the drop offs I noticed he was making contact a lot deeper than usual which would definitely explain the fall off in production to the pull side.
This tells me, he could have been making a mechanical change, and was letting the ball get too deep, probably too deep. His Run tool was close to A-Grade.
I think if you have team that can allow him to work through some things there is room for some optimism. Sometimes hitters go overboard trying to tweak things, and sometimes it just snowballs, especially with the pressure that comes with playing on a team like the Dodgers. This could be one of those situations. The coach in me says to make sure he gets the front heel down to allow his hands/body to work, but I don’t have access to enough video to give a formal assessment on his swing.
I see this as a buy the dip, low risk opportunity on a veteran, and if he figures it out you could deal him at the deadline or ride it out if you are a contender. If not, you can release him. Team’s with a lower RVO at LF/DH/RF are LF - STL, CHW, KCR DH - CHW, TEX, SDP, COL RF- CIN, SFG, TEX, KCR, SEA, CLE, STL and here’s a list of Conforto’s Production by Ballpark. Also, a team like the Brewers comes to mind as willing to take on guys like Andrew Vaughn.
If I am a team like the Pirates this feels like it could be a fit especially at PNC Ballpark, if he takes the next step to tinker in the other direction to make contact a little more in front other teams might have to put a fielder in the Allegheny. He also hits well in other NL Central stadium except Wrigley.
This off-season, Jake Fraley (.134 RVO in 2025) signed for 1yr/$3 mil with the TBR, JJ Bleday (.131 RVO in 2025) signed for 1yr/$1.4mil with CIN. Conforto (.120 RVO in 2025) I would be comfortable at 1yr/$1 mil.
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Amateur Scouting Reports:
Trevor Cohen (Rutgers): identified as “Corbin Carroll-esque”; later drafted 85th by San Francisco. Published March 29, 2025
James Quinn-Irons (GMU): projected as a Grichuk-type profile; later drafted 147th by Tampa Bay. Published April 27, 2025
Professional Scouting Reports:
Cody Ponce: Scouting Report and evaluation ‘GM/Front Office Game Plan – 2-3 Year Contract Outlook - Depending on what your team relays to you in terms of their expectations on timelines to improve these mechanical/stamina issues, a 2-3 year investment could makes sense, provided there’s a commitment from both player and organization to mechanical adjustments, conditioning, and development support. Two potential approaches emerge…’ Published Aug 25, 2025. Toronto Blue Jays signed Ponce on a 3 year/ $30 mil contract on 12/11/25
Kyle Stowers (Norfolk): “Stowers… can hit this caliber pitching especially with his approach consistently. I think he needs an opportunity with a big club to see if he can translate his first at bat approach to next level caliber pitching.” Published Jul 29, 2024. Stowers AS in 2025 .288/.368/.544
Sung-Mun Song was identified in Bozzy Baseball Blog’s bi-weekly KBO Rates & Ranks Report as a great producer (5th best in KBO). He was featured in nearly every bi-weekly KBO R&R Report. He even reached elite production in R&R Report #9… On 12/19/25 signed with the San Diego Padres
Free Agent Evaluations:
Kyle Schwarber – ‘Ultimately when it’s all said and done, I think you could see a +10%-15% bidding debit + State & Local Income taxes debit applied to a market price. Max market + max debit could put this around $29.2M AAV / 4 years. I think you will see teams jump at the opportunity to compete for an elite producer when they know the Dodgers and Yankees are not in the equation. Additionally, when teams like the Phillies and Mets are tied to a couple aging contracts, you start to see a window where teams extend on the years to put this one over the top’ Published Nov 3, 2025 … Philadelphia Phillies signed for 5 years, 30 Mil AAV on 12/9/25
Ha-Seong Kim –‘ There are injury concerns here, I think he could get $15,653,069.18 AAV over 3-4 years. A team with availability at 2B after Y2 would be preferable. In all, not much has changed from my eval from last year. I like the growth of the bat with the Braves, tells me he’s willing to evolve a bit. I’m comfortable with 3Y/$46,959,207.53 if I had a need at SS or 2B…The natural fit is to say he’s going to go back to the Braves. They seemed to work pretty well together, and they need a SS.’ Published Dec 15, 2025… Atlanta Braves signed for 1 year, $20 Mil on 12/15/25
Kyle Tucker, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Munetaka Murakami, Luis Arráez, Eugenio Suárez, Kazuma Okamoto, J.T. Realmuto, Elías Díaz
Tyler O’Neill: ‘Predicted fit/value with Orioles; Contract Recommendation : the deal is 50% ($7.8 mil) guaranteed, which is what you are expecting him to play, then an additional ($1.56 Mil) for each additional 10% GP. $7.8 Guaranteed, $7.8 in games played Incentives or 2 years/$18.72 Mil.’ Published Nov 17, 2024… Signed with Orioles on 12/7/2024 for 3 years/$49.5Mil… In 2025, O’Neill played in 33% of Orioles games.
Jurickson Profar: “Given Profar’s profile at 32, I’d recommend a 1-year, $6.75 million deal, with the possibility of a 2-year, $14 million deal for a team that views him as a complementary piece in an already established lineup. While his on-base skills are appealing, I’m not buying into the slugging breakout, especially given the stark home/away splits’ Published 11/23/24…On 1/23/25 Profar signed with the Braves for three-years, $42 million. On 3/31/25 Profar received an 80-game suspension
MLB Analysis:
Phillies – Predicted how the Phillies might manage veteran workloads, such as placing Bryce Harper on the IL and highlighted Otto Kemp as a likely call-up. Published May 28, 2025
Orioles: Post-deadline recap with roster strategy analysis. Published July 31, 2025
Free Agent Valuation Tool :
Harrison Bader: Valuation tool: $6.3–8.5M; final deal $6.25M + $2M in incentives
Kiké Hernández : Valuation tool: $5.4–$7.6M. final deal : $6.5M