Orioles Post-Deadline Recap
Building off my previous posts, here's where things stand:
June 26th — Forecasting the Fork in the Road
“If I’m playing GM or working in the front office, I’m not calling up internal pieces just to salvage a postseason run. I’m not putting the weight of a team’s playoff hopes on the shoulders of a young bat with every at-bat. You win or lose with the group you have. If this team fails to play at a .622+ clip over the next month, then you offload walk-year players, target MLB-ready or near-ready talent, and give long-term runway to prospects who can be everyday contributors in 2026. Reassess everything at season’s end. Ideally, you're adding pitching—have scouts at top contender affiliates watching arms, and get intel from your own players too.”
July 25th — The Turning Point
July 25 marked the club’s 12th loss in the month, making a deadline sell-off or retooling inevitable. Interestingly, the moves that followed — particularly trades with the Mets and Blue Jays — reflected that exact approach: trading walk-year assets for pitching prospects.
July 25, 2025: LHP Gregory Soto (walk year) traded to the Mets for RHP Wellington Aracena (Mets’ No. 19 prospect) and RHP Cameron Foster
July 29, 2025: RHP Seranthony Domínguez (walk year) and cash traded to the Blue Jays for RHP Juaron Watts-Brown
July 30th — What Comes Next?
“If I’m in the front office, the first move I make is evaluating players with club options for 2026. Either pick them up, decline them, or explore extensions.”
Names I flagged: Ramón Laureano, Jorge Mateo, Andrew Kittredge
Once those decisions are made, you can get a clearer picture of remaining walk-year players and turn your focus to top priority: left-handed starting pitching. At that point, I’m syncing with Pro Scouting and Analytics on a board of LH targets.
Walk-year players identified at the time included:
SPs: Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano
Position players: Cedric Mullins, Ryan O’Hearn, Gary Sánchez
July 31st — Where We Landed
It’s 10:45 PM. The Orioles made their moves.
11 pitchers (73%) Received from contenders (Mets, Blue Jays, Astros, Padres, Cubs, Tigers). The approach tracked with expectations: trade walk-year players or club-option guys for pitching from contenders.
One move that stung: Ramón Laureano. He brought leadership, toughness, and accountability — the kind of guy who ran hard, cut off extra bases, and played to win. He set a tone for younger players. Tough to see him go.
Ramón Urías also moved. He’s a versatile defender with one more year of control, but with this current core, regular reps weren’t in the cards.
Now What? Who Plays?
As I said in a prior post, these moves open the door for more everyday opportunities and potential call-ups. The Mountcastle situation is one to watch (UFA 2027). There’s already congestion at first base, and that logjam only grows if Basallo gets the call. This circles back to the "runway" concept — how much time does each player get, and what’s the plan for debuts? I won’t pretend to know the front office’s exact philosophy…but if I’m setting the table…
I’m prioritizing 2026 evaluations. I need to know what I have. Give key young players real runway — not sporadic starts based on splits. This dates back to my post from June 26th…If this team fails to play at a .622+ clip over the next month, then you offload walk-year players, target MLB-ready or near-ready talent, and give long-term runway to prospects who can be everyday contributors in 2026.
That’s all I have for today.
Go O’s!
-Chris Boz
Failure to plan is planning to fail. Remain resolved in your pursuits.
Other Blogs...
MLB Analysis :
Phillies – Predicted how the Phillies might manage veteran workloads—such as placing Bryce Harper on the IL—and highlighted Otto Kemp as a likely call-up. You can read it here. Published May 28, 2025
Orioles – Published one day before they parted ways with Brandon Hyde: In it, I called for accountability and posed the question: "Is a shakeup at the helm necessary? Without a course correction soon, 2025 risks slipping away before it ever takes shape." Published May 16, 2025
“Searching for the Oriole Way” - I examine the Orioles’ current trajectory through both a numbers-based lens and an instinctual baseball perspective. ’…If this team fails to play the minimum of .622+ baseball over the next month, then you offload as many walk guys to acquire as many MLB ready to 1-2 year away pieces and call up any players that have potential to be impact everyday players in 2026. Then reassessing the team at the end of the season. If the Orioles can acquire pitching that would be ideal. I would have scouts attending all the top contenders farm systems games, looking at arms. I would be talking to my own systems players about arms they have seen…’ Published Jun 26, 2025.
July 25th, 2025 – On June 26th the Orioles needed to go 17-11 at minimum leading up to the deadline (7/29). July 25th marked their 12th loss, making a deadline sell-off or retooling inevitable. Interestingly, the recent trades with the Mets & Blue Jays— moving a walk-year player in exchange for pitching prospects — closely aligned with that perspective.
Birdland Update – A quick season analysis followed by a in game scouting report.
Pro Scouting Reports:
Norfolk Tides (Kyle Stowers) Published on Jul 29, 2024 ‘Stowers…Didn’t chase, and let it fly on a pitch in his zone. Stowers took advantage of the pitching today, as I would expect from a professional hitter facing 80–92ish. He definitely can hit this caliber pitching especially with his approach consistently. I think he needs an opportunity with a big club to see if he can translate his first at bat approach to next level caliber pitching.’ Stowers was traded on Jul 30, 2024 — The Marlins dealt left-hander Trevor Rogers to the Orioles for Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby. For the 2025 season, as of 7/28/25 in 384 PA Stowers is slashing .299/.379/.573 with an OPS of .952.
Norfolk Tides (Coby Mayo) Published on Jul 28, 2024 ‘Coby Mayo is active at the plate. Not sure if that’s that best way to describe it, but there’s a lot of moving pieces before he gets the bat around. If Kyle Stowers is the most polished swing, Mayo might be the most raw swing on the Tide. It really showed itself when he was late to a pitch when the pitcher went slide step/fastball. He flew out to right on a fastball middleish/away. If he gets exposed here down by a AAA guy throwing 93.9 mph (respectfully), it’s not going to be better in MLB. Mayo is not a MLB ready first baseman. It’s going to take some time, because he had two errors over there. The second error cost two runs and the tying run to score. I don’t know what he looks like at third.’ It was evident last year Coby’s swing needed mechanical corrections to perform consistently at MLB levels.
Jackson Holliday Published on Jul 29, 2024 ‘Not too much changed from last night. Holliday has a big swing and there is a lot of swing & miss. I wish the contact to damage ratio was a little higher, but he’s young and I hope he grows into his swing. Defensively, he was playing second base. In the field he botched a double play ball. He ended up getting an out at second, but resorted to a quick glove flip/tap after he initially dropped it. (it was kinda cool) The talent is clearly there, but you have to make these routine plays. I am going to stick with my assessment last night. Stick to AAA and call it a year. I really do not think he can help the big club this year’ In 2024 slash line .189/.255/.311, and league average defender.
Amateur Scouting Reports:
Scouting Report —Amateur, Division 1 Washington vs. Rutgers (3/28/25) Published Mar 29, 2025 … “Trevor Cohen #4 (1942/994/1358) … Position OF Ht./Wt. 6–1 / 195 B/T L/L Class JR … Game Notes : LHH — simple swing. Hands held behind his head, a slight bat wrap on takes. I like where his hands sit for him. They are flat, but corbin carrol esk.” … Selected by the San Francisco Giants 85th Overall in the 2025 MLB Draft.
D1 Scouting Report Amateur, URI vs. GMU (4/25/25) - Published on Apr 27, 2025… ‘James Quinn-Irons GMU #10…Game Impressions : Good frame 6’3-6-4” runs well in AB #2 triple. played CF - I thought he tracked the ball well in CF top 8th first out. At the plate, I thought he was in and out of his legs a bit…Nice swing, he gets the ball out in front and lifts the ball. There is definitely room for growth. His front side gets firm, but it never gets hard. Ya gotta hit against a stiff front leg if you want to drive a baseball with authority. You can slap a ball and if you are big or strong enough muscle some baseballs with a bent front leg, but you are not buggy whipping balls with a bent front leg. Similar situation not as extreme as Peyton Bonds of Rutgers. You gotta know that there is a next level of untapped power potential with a minor mechanical adjustment. for 6’4”-6’5” the kid moves well. Shoring up the front side will also help with the sway in his hips…Reminds me a little of Randell Grichuk’…. Selected by the Tampa Bay Rays with the 147th overall pick of the 2025 First-Year Player Draft.
Free Agent Evaluations:
Tyler O’Neill – Published on Nov 17, 2024 ‘I could see him with the Orioles, I know the Orioles Super Computer wants him. The Orioles use vsL/vsR splits like it’s a religion, and if there is a player that can hit a ball out of any park it’s O’Neill (48%) of his home runs were no doubters. I’m sure Baltimore would love to have him as a DH vs lefties. I almost wrote this blog from the perspective of the Orioles Super Computer… Recommendation : the deal is 50% ($7.8 mil) guaranteed, which is what you are expecting him to play, then an additional ($1.56 Mil) for each additional 10% GP. $7.8 Guaranteed, $7.8 in games played Incentives or 2 years/$18.72 Mil.’…Signed with Orioles on Dec 7, 2024 for 3 years/$49.5Mil. As of 7/6/25 O’Neill’s played in less than 30% of Orioles games and if he plays in every game after his return from the IL on 7/5/24 has a max opportunity to play in 61.73% games.
Jurickson Profar Published on Nov 23, 2024 ‘Given Profar’s profile at 32, I’d recommend a 1-year, $6.75 million deal, with the possibility of a 2-year, $14 million deal for a team that views him as a complementary piece in an already established lineup. While his on-base skills are appealing, I’m not buying into the slugging breakout, especially given the stark home/away splits. He’s best suited as a high-OBP role player rather than a middle-of-the-order bat. I will probably get a lot of pushback here, if another team wants to pay more I would let that happen. This is just how I see it. I understand he’ll probably get a bigger deal, which I’m fine with.’ On Jan 23, 2025 Profar signed with the Braves three-years, $42 million. On Mar 31, 2025 Profar received an 80-game suspension after testing positive for Chorionic Gonadotropin (hCG), a performance-enhancing substance.
Christian Walker Published on Dec 6, 2024 ‘To me, the Astros make a perfect home for Walker. The Astros are a very data driven organization and would see the value of a guy like Christian Walker. The Astros have an aging roster, so the age probably scares the Astros away from offering him a 3 year deal, but I 100% think they would be in on a 2 year deal. Maybe they do a 2 year deal with a 3rd year team option with a buyout. But they have a 1B spot open… my recommendation 3 years / $47.6-56Mil’ … Signed with Astros on Dec 23, 2024 for 3 years / $60 million
Ha-Seong Kim Published on Dec 17, 2024 ‘Guardians / Rays: Small-market teams love positional versatility…Ha-Seong Kim brings health concerns (check the rehab), but his game is built to produce and a lot of the underlying numbers are trending is a good direction. I feel he’s finally adjusting and making consistent strides in the right direction to learning when to be more aggressive at the plate. I see him as a guy that’s just scratching the surface in terms of what he’s capable of. He’s versatile, disciplined, and sneaky valuable on offense — even if he isn’t a slugger right now. For teams focused on speed, defense, and OBP, Kim’s a fit…1-5year/(11.5M-14.8M AAV).’…Signed with Rays on Feb 3, 2025 for 2 years/ 14.5 AAV
Max Kepler Published on Dec 20, 2024 ‘Considering Kepler’s declining durability, speed, and offensive production, you must expect he will only play around 70% of the games. Based on these factors, my contract recommendation would have been $1 million. Maybe he can play himself into another contract.’… Signed with the Phillies on Dec 20, 2024 for $10Mil. As of 7/28/25 in 343 PA Kepler is slashing .205/.301/.362 , .664 OPS
Free Agent Valuation Tool :
My first test of the tool was Harrison Bader. My valuation tool estimated between $6.3–8.5 million…The final deal was $6.25 mil + $2 mil in possible incentives.
Kiké Hernández… My estimate using my valuation tool: $5.4–$7.6 million. Officially announced the terms: $6.5 million for 2025
