NPB Rates & Ranks Report #8
Week Ending 7/28/2025
Document : NPB Rates & Ranks Report #8
Level : Professional - International
Source : https://www.fangraphs.com/
Offensive Date Data pulled : Monday, July 28, 2025 11:03 AM ET
Pitchers Date Data pulled: Monday, July 28, 2025 11:03 AM ET
Overview : From an offensive perspective, I rated & ranked 198 NPB position players using stats for the follow dates 2025 Season Start - 7/28/2025 with a 60 PA Minimum. Players were assessed using a neutralized Run Value system to measure their overall offensive production, broken down into two core components:
“The Run Tool”— Captures the value generated from non-hit plate appearances (walks, stolen bases, etc.)
“The Hit Tool”— Measures a player’s offensive impact via hitting.
“Overall” — A sum of the Run Tool and the Hit Tool, representing overall offensive contribution.
Each player is rated & ranked in these three categories: Run Tool, Hit Tool , and Overall
Link to Full Spreadsheet
When I look at players I look at them in terms of production amongst their league and MLB standards. Here is where most player fall in terms of Run Value / PA or Overall Rate using a NPB scale.
That said, I like to compare these players to a MLB standard scale for production to see if they could make the transition. If I were looking to acquire a player from another league with lower competition, then I need this player to be producing at an above average production or better.
I used the MLB Overall Rate scale to color code the spreadsheet to easily identify players measure up against MLB Standards when viewing by Age. To view the spreadsheet by Age click the little calculator looking thing, then select ‘Group by Age’.
With that in mind, let’s use that structure to breakdown our report to help identify top talent in the NPB by Age for Great & Elite Production…
Age 24
Shun Mizutani Fighters (NPB) - Great Production
Age 26
Teruaki Sato Tigers (NPB) - Elite Production … L/R | 3B/OF| 6’1” 210 … 5th year in the NPB, is posting elite production with an Overall Rate of 0.181, ranking #2. An Overall Rate of 0.181 is 58.54% better than the average NPB player 0.114. A hit base approach, his rate is coming from his Hit Tool ranked #2 and his Run Tool ranked #34. He has an XBH rate of 14.81% and a HR rate of 7.41% in 390 PA. He is striking out 26.41% of the time and above average BB rate 11.28%… .987 Fielding % at 3B
Seiya Hosokawa Dragons (NPB) - Great Production
Age 29
Kazuma Okamoto Giants (NPB) - Elite Production … R/R | OF | 6’1” 220… 8th year in the NPB, is posting elite production with an Overall Rate of 0.185, ranking #1 An Overall Rate of 0.185 is 61.36% better than the average NPB player 0.114. A hit heavy approach, his rate is coming from his Hit Tool ranked #1 and his Run Tool ranked #30. He has an XBH rate of 14.53% and a HR rate of 6.84% in 134 PA. He is striking out 11.94% of the time and average BB rate 10.45%.
No new updates on return… the initial report was 3 months from May 7th. That would put his return 10ish days away.
Franmil Reyes Fighters (NPB) - Great Production
Ukyo Shuto Hawks (NPB) - Great Production
Age 36
Yoshihiro Maru Giants (NPB) - Great Production
Pitching
There is limited data on pitchers in NPB, so I had to use implied probabilities numbers for some XBH values to understand run value, which is why I use the *. From the pitching perspective, I rated & ranked 162 NPB pitchers for 2025 Season Start - 7/28/2025 with a minimum requirement of 20 IP. The pitchers are rated the same way in terms of run value but instead of Plate appearance or At Bat, I use Batter Faced.
Daichi Ishii Tigers (NPB) Age : 27 | SO Rate 21.43% | BB Rate 3.97%
Taichi Ishiyama Swallows (NPB)Age : 36 | SO Rate 28.42% | BB Rate 3.16%
Sotaro Shimauchi Carp (NPB)Age : 28 | SO Rate 24.43% | BB Rate 9.92%
Hiromu Ise BayStars (NPB)Age : 27 | SO Rate 27.03% | BB Rate 6.31%
Masashi Itoh Tigers (NPB)Age : 29 | SO Rate 15.09% | BB Rate 3.77%
Foster Griffin Giants (NPB)Age : 29 | SO Rate 26.18% | BB Rate 5.82%
Jon Duplantier Tigers (NPB)Age : 30 | SO Rate 33.03% | BB Rate 5.76%
Shunsuke Nakamori Marines (NPB) Age : 23 | SO Rate 32.43% | BB Rate 3.60%
Rikuto Yokoyama Marines (NPB) Age : 23 | SO Rate 22.58% | BB Rate 5.65%
Raidel Martinez Giants (NPB) Age : 28 | SO Rate 27.34% | BB Rate 6.47%
SO Rate Leaders
Trey Wingenter Lions (NPB) Age : 31 | SO Rate 40.54%
Naoto Nishiguchi Golden Eagles (NPB) Age : 28 | SO Rate 37.61%
Shinya Matsuyama Dragons (NPB) Age : 25 | SO Rate 36.07%
Kouya Fujii Hawks (NPB) Age : 28 | SO Rate 35.56%
Kazuki Sugiyama Hawks (NPB) Age : 27 | SO Rate 34.88%
Kota Shoji Swallows (NPB) Age : 25 | SO Rate 33.71%
Yuki Matsumoto Hawks (NPB) Age : 29 | SO Rate 33.64%
Jon Duplantier Tigers (NPB) Age : 30 | SO Rate 33.03%
Shunsuke Nakamori Marines (NPB) Age : 23 | SO Rate 32.43%
Taisei Yanagawa Fighters (NPB) Age : 21 | SO Rate 31.82%
That’s all for the NPB report, stay tuned next week for the MiLB Weekly Report.
This week I finished reading The Last Manager by John W. Miller. I was trying to find books that could give me insight on the Orioles history and the manager role. It was tough to really get into for the first 50 to 80 pages, but once the book gets into his Managing career in Knoxville it’s an easy read. There were parts of the book that had me laughing out loud. This book hit exactly what I was looking for, I really enjoy it and learned a ton. Here were some of my favorite tidbits :
Helped develop the Oriole Way.
‘The key step for an infielder is the first one - left or right - but before the ball is hit.’
Jim Palmer was a total rebel, always butting heads with Earl. Palmer’s commentary about Earl’s understanding was pitching was funny… During a rehab stint, Earl made a mound visit to throw more strikes then Palmer proceeded to give up a grand slam to Johnny Bench. It was the only grand slam Palmer gave up in his professional career and it kind of set the tone for the rest of their relationship together.
The Orioles players mounted insurrection against Earl. Earl had hit a dry spell (on the field) and without Weaver initially knowing, players began developing and using their own secret signs and plays. It was such a unique situation where players wanted to win for Earl, but also kind of hated him, but also really respected him.
A clubbie sewed a pocket on the inside of Earl’s jersey to hold his cigarettes. Somehow an umpire found out about the pocket, and when he greeting Earl would purposely smash the cigarettes. Apparently the statue of Earl at Camden Yards has the outline of a cigarette pack in his uniform… Next time I’m there I will have to check that out.
The constant back and forth between Earl’s WWE persona and umpires…. You are only here to ….
Steve Dalkowski story.
EWB, or Earl Weaver Baseball was revolutionary in terms of video games.
The importance of honesty.
It was interesting reading this book and having played for the Youse’s Orioles, an Orioles scout team in the Cal Ripken Collegiate League. There were things Coach Tim Norris would tell me that felt right out of this Oriole Way mindset and mentality.
The next book I have picked up is The Mindful Athlete by George Mumford. It’s not a baseball book, but about performing at a high level is not specific to baseball.
Don’t forget to subscribe and follow me on Twitter | LinkedIn | Medium | IG | TikTok. If you loved it or hated it, let me know as well, but remember 3 ups & 3 downs. Give me 3 things you liked followed by 3 things you hated.
-Chris Boz
Failure to plan is planning to fail. Remain resolved in your pursuits.
Other Blogs...
MLB Analysis:
Phillies –Predicted how the Phillies might manage veteran workloads—such as placing Bryce Harper on the IL—and highlighted Otto Kemp as a likely call-up. Published May 28, 2025
Orioles – Published May 16, 2025, one day before they parted ways with Brandon Hyde: In it, I called for accountability and posed the question: "Is a shakeup at the helm necessary? Without a course correction soon, 2025 risks slipping away before it ever takes shape."
“Searching for the Oriole Way” - I examine the Orioles’ current trajectory through both a numbers-based lens and an instinctual baseball perspective. Published Jun 26, 2025
Birdland Update 7/17/25 - Outlook nearing the Trade Deadline.
Pro Scouting Reports:
Norfolk Tides (Kyle Stowers) Published on Jul 29, 2024 ‘Stowers…Didn’t chase, and let it fly on a pitch in his zone. Stowers took advantage of the pitching today, as I would expect from a professional hitter facing 80–92ish. He definitely can hit this caliber pitching especially with his approach consistently. I think he needs an opportunity with a big club to see if he can translate his first at bat approach to next level caliber pitching.’ Stowers was traded on Jul 30, 2024 — The Marlins dealt left-hander Trevor Rogers to the Orioles for Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby. For the 2025 season, as of 7/28/25 in 384 PA Stowers is slashing .299/.379/.573 with an OPS of .952.
Norfolk Tides (Coby Mayo) Published on Jul 28, 2024 ‘Coby Mayo is active at the plate. Not sure if that’s that best way to describe it, but there’s a lot of moving pieces before he gets the bat around. If Kyle Stowers is the most polished swing, Mayo might be the most raw swing on the Tide. It really showed itself when he was late to a pitch when the pitcher went slide step/fastball. He flew out to right on a fastball middleish/away. If he gets exposed here down by a AAA guy throwing 93.9 mph (respectfully), it’s not going to be better in MLB. Mayo is not a MLB ready first baseman. It’s going to take some time, because he had two errors over there. The second error cost two runs and the tying run to score. I don’t know what he looks like at third.’
Jackson Holliday Published on Jul 29, 2024 ‘Not too much changed from last night. Holliday has a big swing and there is a lot of swing & miss. I wish the contact to damage ratio was a little higher, but he’s young and I hope he grows into his swing. Defensively, he was playing second base. In the field he botched a double play ball. He ended up getting an out at second, but resorted to a quick glove flip/tap after he initially dropped it. (it was kinda cool) The talent is clearly there, but you have to make these routine plays. I am going to stick with my assessment last night. Stick to AAA and call it a year. I really do not think he can help the big club this year’ In 2024 slash line .189/.255/.311, and league average defender.
Amateur Scouting Reports:
Scouting Report —Amateur, Division 1 Washington vs. Rutgers (3/28/25) Published Mar 29, 2025 … “Trevor Cohen #4 (1942/994/1358) … Position OF Ht./Wt. 6–1 / 195 B/T L/L Class JR … Game Notes : LHH — simple swing. Hands held behind his head, a slight bat wrap on takes. I like where his hands sit for him. They are flat, but corbin carrol esk.” … Selected by the San Francisco Giants 85th Overall in the 2025 MLB Draft.
D1 Scouting Report Amateur, URI vs. GMU (4/25/25) - Published on Apr 27, 2025… ‘James Quinn-Irons GMU #10…Game Impressions : Good frame 6’3-6-4” runs well in AB #2 triple. played CF - I thought he tracked the ball well in CF top 8th first out. At the plate, I thought he was in and out of his legs a bit…Nice swing, he gets the ball out in front and lifts the ball. There is definitely room for growth. His front side gets firm, but it never gets hard. Ya gotta hit against a stiff front leg if you want to drive a baseball with authority. You can slap a ball and if you are big or strong enough muscle some baseballs with a bent front leg, but you are not buggy whipping balls with a bent front leg. Similar situation not as extreme as Peyton Bonds of Rutgers. You gotta know that there is a next level of untapped power potential with a minor mechanical adjustment. for 6’4”-6’5” the kid moves well. Shoring up the front side will also help with the sway in his hips…Reminds me a little of Randell Grichuk’…. Selected by the Tampa Bay Rays with the 147th overall pick of the 2025 First-Year Player Draft.
Free Agent Valuation Tool :
My first test of the tool was Harrison Bader. My valuation tool estimated between $6.3–8.5 million…The final deal was $6.25 mil + $2 mil in possible incentives.
Kiké Hernández… My estimate using my valuation tool: $5.4–$7.6 million. Officially announced the terms: $6.5 million for 2025
Free Agent Evaluations:
Christian Walker Published on Dec 6, 2024 ‘To me, the Astros make a perfect home for Walker. The Astros are a very data driven organization and would see the value of a guy like Christian Walker. The Astros have an aging roster, so the age probably scares the Astros away from offering him a 3 year deal, but I 100% think they would be in on a 2 year deal. Maybe they do a 2 year deal with a 3rd year team option with a buyout. But they have a 1B spot open… my recommendation 3 years / $47.6-56Mil’ … Signed with Astros on Dec 23, 2024 for 3 years / $60 million
Ha-Seong Kim Published on Dec 17, 2024 ‘Guardians / Rays: Small-market teams love positional versatility…Ha-Seong Kim brings health concerns (check the rehab), but his game is built to produce and a lot of the underlying numbers are trending is a good direction. I feel he’s finally adjusting and making consistent strides in the right direction to learning when to be more aggressive at the plate. I see him as a guy that’s just scratching the surface in terms of what he’s capable of. He’s versatile, disciplined, and sneaky valuable on offense — even if he isn’t a slugger right now. For teams focused on speed, defense, and OBP, Kim’s a fit…1-5year/(11.5M-14.8M AAV).’…Signed with Rays on Feb 3, 2025 for 2 years/ 14.5 AAV
Tyler O’Neill – Published on Nov 17, 2024 ‘I could see him with the Orioles, I know the Orioles Super Computer wants him. The Orioles use vsL/vsR splits like it’s a religion, and if there is a player that can hit a ball out of any park it’s O’Neill (48%) of his home runs were no doubters. I’m sure Baltimore would love to have him as a DH vs lefties. I almost wrote this blog from the perspective of the Orioles Super Computer… Recommendation : the deal is 50% ($7.8 mil) guaranteed, which is what you are expecting him to play, then an additional ($1.56 Mil) for each additional 10% GP. $7.8 Guaranteed, $7.8 in games played Incentives or 2 years/$18.72 Mil.’…Signed with Orioles on Dec 7, 2024 for 3 years/$49.5Mil. As of 7/6/25 O’Neill’s played in less than 30% of Orioles games and if he plays in every game after his return from the IL on 7/5/24 has a max opportunity to play in 61.73% games.
Jurickson Profar Published on Nov 23, 2024 ‘Given Profar’s profile at 32, I’d recommend a 1-year, $6.75 million deal, with the possibility of a 2-year, $14 million deal for a team that views him as a complementary piece in an already established lineup. While his on-base skills are appealing, I’m not buying into the slugging breakout, especially given the stark home/away splits. He’s best suited as a high-OBP role player rather than a middle-of-the-order bat. I will probably get a lot of pushback here, if another team wants to pay more I would let that happen. This is just how I see it. I understand he’ll probably get a bigger deal, which I’m fine with.’ On Jan 23, 2025 Profar signed with the Braves three-years, $42 million. On Mar 31, 2025 Profar received an 80-game suspension after testing positive for Chorionic Gonadotropin (hCG), a performance-enhancing substance.
Max Kepler Published on Dec 20, 2024 ‘Considering Kepler’s declining durability, speed, and offensive production, you must expect he will only play around 70% of the games. Based on these factors, my contract recommendation would have been $1 million. Maybe he can play himself into another contract.’… Signed with the Phillies on Dec 20, 2024 for $10Mil. As of 7/28/25 in 343 PA Kepler is slashing .205/.301/.362 , .664 OPS
MiLB :
Scouting Report MiLB High-A affiliate - Ironbirds (Orioles) German / Freeberger / Méndez – Scouting report from a game I attended, focus on pitching evaluations. Published on May 10, 2025
KBO/NPB :
KBO Rates & Ranks Report #6 Bi-Weekly is a tracking/monitoring report I publish bi-weekly. I rate and rank production for KBO. NPB Rates & Ranks Report #6 Bi-Weekly is a tracking/monitoring report I publish bi-weekly. I rate and rank production for NPB. Published on July 13, 2025
Amateur :