Document : NPB Rates & Ranks Report #11
Level : Professional - International
Source : https://www.fangraphs.com/
Offensive Date Data pulled : Monday, September 8, 2025 6:39 AM ET
Pitchers Date Data pulled: Monday, September 8, 2025 6:39 AM ET
Overview : From an offensive perspective, I rated & ranked all NPB position players using stats from 2025 Season Start - 9/8/2025 with a 60 PA Minimum. Players were assessed using a neutralized Run Value system to measure their overall offensive production by plate appearance, broken down into two core components:
“The Run Tool”— Captures the value generated from non-hit plate appearances (walks, stolen bases, etc.)
“The Hit Tool”— Measures a player’s offensive impact via hitting.
“Overall” — A sum of the Run Tool and the Hit Tool, representing overall offensive contribution.
Each player is rated & ranked in these three categories: Run Tool, Hit Tool , and Overall
When I look at players I look at them in terms of production amongst their league. Here is where the 200 eligible players fall in terms of Run Value / PA or Overall Rate using a NPB scale.
To view the spreadsheet by Age click the little calculator looking thing, then select ‘Group by Age’.
With that in mind, let’s use that structure to breakdown our report to help identify top talent in the NPB by Age for Great & Elite Production…
Age 24
Shota Morishita Tigers (NPB) - Great Production
Age 25
Munetaka Murakami Swallows (NPB) Elite Production … L/R | 3B/1B/OF | 6-2, 213lb … 8th year in the NPB, is posting elite production with an Overall Rate of 0.210, ranking #1. An Overall Rate of 0.210 is 80.8% better than the average NPB player 0.116.
A hit base approach, his rate is coming from his Hit Tool ranked #1 and his Run Tool ranked #44. He has an XBH rate of 17.52% and a HR rate of 13.14% in 156 PA. He is striking out 29.49% of the time and above average BB rate 12.18%. 1 SB - 2 CS, 33% success rate.
Ryutaro Hatsuki Carp (NPB) - Great Production
Age 26
Teruaki Sato Tigers (NPB) Elite Production … L/R | 3B/OF| 6’1” 210 … 5th year in the NPB, is posting elite production with an Overall Rate of 0.178, ranking #2. An Overall Rate of 0.178 is 53.7% better than the average NPB player 0.116.
A hit base approach, his rate is coming from his Hit Tool ranked #2 and his Run Tool ranked #33. He has an XBH rate of 14.79% and a HR rate of 7.50% in 534 PA. He is striking out 27.34% of the time and above average BB rate 11.42%. 10 SB - 2 CS, 83% success rate.
Tough last 2 weeks for Sato at 3B more than doubling his 2025 total for errors. Now up to 5 on the year, with a .978 Fielding % at 3B.
Seiya Hosokawa Dragons (NPB) - Great Production
Age 29
Kazuma Okamoto Giants (NPB) - Elite Production … R/R | OF | 6’1” 220… 8th year in the NPB, is posting elite production with an Overall Rate of 0.177, ranking #3. An Overall Rate of 0.177 is 52.8% better than the average NPB player 0.116.
A hit heavy approach, his rate is coming from his Hit Tool ranked #3 and his Run Tool ranked #35. He has an XBH rate of 13.61% and a HR rate of 5.76% in 218 PA. He is striking out just 11.93% of the time and slightly above average BB rate 11.01%
Franmil Reyes Fighters (NPB) - Great Production
Age 31
Kensuke Kondoh Hawks (NPB) - Elite Production … L/R | RF | 5-8, 190lb … 8th year in the NPB, is posting elite production with an Overall Rate of 0.177, ranking #4. An Overall Rate of 0.177 is 52.6% better than the average NPB player 0.116.
A balanced/run heavy approach, his rate is coming from his Hit Tool ranked #8 and his Run Tool ranked #2. He has an XBH rate of 10.48% and a HR rate of 3.81% in 256 PA. He is striking out 12.89% of the time and elite BB rate 19.14%.
Only a handful at bats for Kondoh since my last report. Not seeing anything online about an injury.
Age 33
Yoshi Tsutsugo BayStars (NPB) - Great Production
Age 34
Luke Voit Golden Eagles (NPB) - Great Production
Year 8 NPB Position Players with Elite Production
Munetaka Murakami Swallows (NPB)
Kazuma Okamoto Giants (NPB)
Kensuke Kondoh Hawks (NPB)
Pitching
There is limited data on pitchers in NPB, so I had to use implied probabilities numbers for some XBH values to understand run value, which is why I use the *. From the pitching perspective, I rated & ranked all NPB pitchers for 2025 Season Start - 9/8/2025 with a minimum requirement of 20 IP. The pitchers are rated the same way in terms of run value but instead of Plate appearance or At Bat, I use Batter Faced.
Top Pitchers by Overall Rate
Naoto Nishiguchi Golden Eagles (NPB) Age 28 - Y5
Daichi Ishii Tigers (NPB) Age 27 - Y5
Jon Duplantier Tigers (NPB) Age 30
Sotaro Shimauchi Carp (NPB) Age 28 - Y7
Rowan Wick BayStars (NPB) Age 32 - Y3
Shunsuke Nakamori Marines (NPB) Age 23 - Y3
Masaki Oyokawa Tigers (NPB) Age 24 - Y5
Foster Griffin Giants (NPB) Age 29
Taichi Ishiyama Swallows (NPB) Age 36 - Year 8
Tatsuya Imai Lions (NPB) Age 27 - Year 8
Top Pitchers by SO%
Trey Wingenter Lions (NPB) Age 31 | SO Rate 38.01%
Kouya Fujii Hawks (NPB) Age 28 | SO Rate 37.57% - Y6
Naoto Nishiguchi Golden Eagles (NPB) Age 28 | SO Rate 37.42% Y5
Shinya Matsuyama Dragons (NPB) Age 25 | SO Rate 34.25% Y3
Kota Shoji Swallows (NPB) Age 25 | SO Rate 32.86% Y1
Shunsuke Nakamori Marines (NPB) Age 23 | SO Rate 32.43% - Y3
Jon Duplantier Tigers (NPB) Age 30 | SO Rate 32.38%
Kazuki Sugiyama Hawks (NPB) Age 27 | SO Rate 31.78% Y6
Yuki Matsumoto Hawks (NPB) Age 29 | SO Rate 31.68% Year 8
Raidel Martinez Giants (NPB) Age 28 | 31.15% Year 8
That’s all for the NPB report, stay tuned next week for the MiLB Weekly Report.
Book Review (Sir Alex Ferguson’s Leading: Learning from Life and My Years at Manchester United)
For any new comers to the blog, I like to share the things I have been reading and do a book review. 4 NPB blogs ago I recapped some of my favorite parts from Built To Win by John Schuerholz, 3 weeks ago I picked out some of my favorites from The Last Manager by John W. Miller. 2 weeks ago I reviewed The Mindful Athlete by George Mumford. Last week I reviewed Sideline C.E.O. by Marty Smith.
This week is Sir Alex Ferguson’s Leading: Learning from Life and My Years at Manchester United. I was looking for a book that dealt with leadership in a front office/manager. This book definitely delivered on that. I must admit, it was a bit of a tougher read for 2 reasons. I am not totally familiar with ‘soccer’ and it’s innerworkings. Combine my lack of soccer knowledge with Sir Alex Ferguson’s Scottish tone, at the beginning it took a while to digest. By the end end I felt much more comfortable with everything. I definitely recommend using an audio book.
That said, it was a phenomenal read. The depth that Sir Alex goes into is just incredible. There is a method to his madness and this book details it all. I think that’s what I liked about it so much, everything he did seemed to have purpose, intent and focus on winning/discipline. It was just awesome. Some of my favorite parts :
Diving into the importance of Listening and Watching. ‘They are vital ways to take in information and they cost nothing….There’s a reason that God gave us two ears, two eyes, and one mouth. It’s so you can listen and watch twice as much as you talk…There are two ways to observe : the first is on the detail and the second is on the big picture.’ Also talks about the importance of reading.
He once took his United team on a ‘field trip’ to the UK's Special Air Service (SAS) training ground. They learned about military strategies, and sure enough Sir Alex too one of the ideas about learning when the best time to attack was and turned it into a football play. I thought this was excellent creativity.
“Watching others, listening to their advice, and reading about people are three of the best things I ever did.”
Sir Alex also got personal too, I enjoyed the stories about his upbringing. They made me laugh. He didn’t talk to his father for 6 months after his father thought he was living too well, because once he became a pro soccer player he began going out on Saturday nights.
I appreciated the candor as well throughout the book. He thought he might have been too much of a disciplinarian in his younger years and tells a story about a time he regretted. He thought a player was enjoying himself too much celebrating too much after winning the European Cup, and forbade him from carrying the trophy around the field when they returned home.
'I placed discipline above all else and it might have cost us several titles. If I had to repeat things, I’d do precisely the same, because one you bid farewell to discipline you say goodbye to success and set the stage for anarchy.’ I loved his use of the word anarchy.
‘In the long run principles are just more important than expediency.’
The importance of grit and determination, over just great talent. Drive vs. Talent.
He studied his players, their background, their family. He once signed a players brother to get the player he really wanted. He knew if he could sign the one brother the other would follow.
The importance of training and preparation. The most important aspect of his system was training. Required intensity, concentration, commitment in every session.
Part of the pursuit of excellence involves eliminating as many surprises as possible because life is full of the unexpected… Relentless homework, all of it unglamorous, was a mainstay at United.
I enjoyed the specific player examples he uses throughout the book. I have no idea who any of them were/are, but I definitely know who Eric Cantona, Roy Keane, Ryan Giggs are now. I think Eric Cantona was referenced about once every 5 pages.
Importance of having a team with youth.
Appreciated position flexibility, reliability, durability.
The four principal virtues of picking a captain, although I am not sure he states all 4. I think he only states 3 in the book.
You should never touch a cup until you have won it.
Distractions - I have yet to encounter anyone who has achieved massive success without closing themselves off from the demands of others or forgoing pastimes.
Don’t play the occasion, play the game.
I obviously enjoyed the part where he talks about finance.
I could keep going on, I can’t say enough good things about this one. I highly recommend this book and audio version. So many good insights. 10/10 Here is a link to the book. https://www.amazon.com/Leading-Learning-Years-Manchester-United/dp/0316268100
Also if anyone has an extra ticket to the Master’s Sir Alex has that event on his bucket list of events to attend.
The books on deck for next week will be Who Moved My Cheese? by Spencer Johnson and Fish by Stephen C. Lundin. I received these books and figured I would read them. They are quick reads about a 100 pages each - interesting. The book in the hole is The Ripken Way - A Manual For Baseball and Life by Cal Ripken, Sr. I’m looking forward to that one.
Don’t forget to subscribe and follow me on Twitter | LinkedIn | Medium | IG | TikTok. If you loved or hated this blog, let me know as well, but remember 3 ups & 3 downs. Give me 3 things you liked followed by 3 things you hated.
-Chris Boz
Failure to plan is planning to fail. Remain resolved in your pursuits.
For More Bozzy Baseball Blogs…
MLB Analysis:
Phillies – Predicted how the Phillies might manage veteran workloads—such as placing Bryce Harper on the IL—and highlighted Otto Kemp as a likely call-up. You can read it here. Published May 28, 2025
Orioles – Published one day before they parted ways with Brandon Hyde: In it, I called for accountability and posed the question: "Is a shakeup at the helm necessary? Without a course correction soon, 2025 risks slipping away before it ever takes shape." Published May 16, 2025
Orioles: Post-deadline recap with roster strategy analysis. Published July 31, 2025
Amateur Scouting Reports:
Trevor Cohen (Rutgers) – identified as “Corbin Carroll-esque” (published March 29, 2025); later drafted 85th by San Francisco.
James Quinn-Irons (GMU) – projected as a Grichuk-type profile (published April 27, 2025); later drafted 147th by Tampa Bay.
Professional Scouting Reports:
Kyle Stowers (Norfolk) – “Stowers… can hit this caliber pitching especially with his approach consistently. I think he needs an opportunity with a big club to see if he can translate his first at bat approach to next level caliber pitching.”
Cody Ponce - Scouting Report and evaluation.
Free Agent Evaluations:
Tyler O’Neill – ‘Predicted fit/value with Orioles; Contract Recommendation : the deal is 50% ($7.8 mil) guaranteed, which is what you are expecting him to play, then an additional ($1.56 Mil) for each additional 10% GP. $7.8 Guaranteed, $7.8 in games played Incentives or 2 years/$18.72 Mil.’ Published 11/17/24… Signed with Orioles on 12/7/2024 for 3 years/$49.5Mil… As of 8/2/25 O’Neill’s played in 37% of Orioles games and max opportunity to play in 57% games.
Free Agent Valuation Tool :
Harrison Bader: Valuation tool: $6.3–8.5M; final deal $6.25M + $2M in incentives
Kiké Hernández : Valuation tool: $5.4–$7.6M. final deal : $6.5M
